Deep cuts · What the final score hides
Two 31–28 wins. Two different stories.
Largest gap among 73 exact-score pairs in 191 eligible wins. 1999–2026 football seasons, through Oct 4, 2026. Regular season and playoffs; overtime included.
Compare their play-by-play paths
Both paths use the same win-chance scale. Open either game above to inspect its plays.
45.4% pre-play win chance · Q1 15:00
2-N.Folk kicks 65 yards from NYJ 35 to end zone, Touchback.
57.8% pre-play win chance · Q1 15:00
1-M.Nugent kicks 70 yards from NYJ 30 to end zone, Touchback.
The improbable wins
2 wins from below 1%. Find the way back.
These Jets wins reached a pre-play model estimate strictly below 1% during the second half. The displayed percentage is each game’s low.
2 of 191 eligible wins. 1999–2026 football seasons, through Oct 4, 2026. Regular season and playoffs; overtime included.
The lead that got away
4 losses after 95%. See where they turned.
- 2018 vs Green BayDec 23, 2018 · Jets 38–4497.78%
- 2017 at MiamiOct 22, 2017 · Jets 28–3196.22%
- 2019 vs BuffaloSep 8, 2019 · Jets 16–1796.16%
- 1999 at OaklandOct 24, 1999 · Jets 23–2495.01%
These losses reached a pre-play Jets win chance strictly above 95% in the second half. Each percentage is the game’s high.
4 of 261 eligible losses. 1999–2026 football seasons, through Oct 4, 2026. Regular season and playoffs; overtime included.
One play · Model win-chance change
One play shifted it 76.3 points.
+76.3
Percentage points of Jets win chance on the saved key play in 2015 at the Giants. Final: Jets 23–20.
(6:38) 3-J.Brown 48 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Left, Center-51-Z.DeOssie, Holder-9-B.Wing.
Largest absolute change among 451 usable saved second-half key plays, one per published case. 1999–2026 football seasons, through Oct 4, 2026. Regular season and playoffs; overtime included.
Compare the ten largest saved changes
- 2015 at the GiantsDec 6, 2015 · Jets 23–20+76.3 pp
- 2020 vs Las VegasDec 6, 2020 · Jets 28–31-73.3 pp
- 2021 vs TennesseeOct 3, 2021 · Jets 27–24+68.4 pp
- 2017 vs JacksonvilleOct 1, 2017 · Jets 23–20+66.0 pp
- 2014 at MinnesotaDec 7, 2014 · Jets 24–30-64.4 pp
- 2002 at BuffaloSep 8, 2002 · Jets 37–31+57.8 pp
- 2010 at ClevelandNov 14, 2010 · Jets 26–20+57.3 pp
- 2008 vs BuffaloDec 14, 2008 · Jets 31–27+56.6 pp
- 2001 vs MiamiOct 14, 2001 · Jets 21–17+54.8 pp
- 2021 vs Tampa BayJan 2, 2022 · Jets 24–28-53.9 pp
Follow the finding
Surprising facts. Open evidence.
These discoveries are calculated from 452 published Jets game cases with reconciled final scores and usable second-half probability estimates. 1999–2026 football seasons, through Oct 4, 2026. Regular season and playoffs; overtime included.
Win chance and play changes are nflfastR model estimates. The final scores are recorded results. Missing estimates, flagged games, duplicate identities and unconfirmed current results stay out of the sample.
A game link opens its final, probability path and recorded play evidence. Earlier Jets history has separate sourced accounts.
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Results checked Oct 9, 2026, 9:29 AM ET.