ajetsfan

Menu

Game archive · 1999–2026

453 Jets games, on the record.

Each game has its final score and a model’s win probability before every recorded play. Compare the final with the probability path. Losses rank by their highest second-half estimate; wins rank by their lowest.

Through

Hardest loss · Dec 23, 2018

Lost 38–44 vs Green Bay. The model had them as high as 97.8% after halftime.

First of 261 ranked losses.

See this game

Unlikeliest win · Sep 18, 2022

Won 31–30 at Cleveland. The model had them as low as 0.4% after halftime.

First of 191 ranked wins.

See this game

The memory ledger Selected archive cases

Selected games. The record.

Final scores, sourced game accounts and model estimates. These selections sit outside the probability rankings.

  1. Case 01Jets win

    Monday Night Miracle

    2000 regular season

    Final / OTNYJ 40 MIA 37

    Jets point differential
    +3
    Lowest second-half model win probability
    0.4%

    Source accountTrailing 30–7 after three quarters, the Jets rallied. Jumbo Elliott caught the tying touchdown with 42 seconds left; John Hall’s field goal won it in overtime.

    Open the case Read the Jets account
  2. Case 02Jets win

    Foxborough, January 2011

    2010 postseason

    FinalNYJ 28 NE 21

    Jets point differential
    +7
    Lowest second-half model win probability
    62.5%

    Source accountThe Jets returned to Gillette after a 45–3 regular-season loss and beat New England in the divisional playoffs, reaching their second straight AFC Championship Game.

    Open the case Read the Jets account
  3. Case 03Jets win

    Forty-one to nothing

    2002 postseason

    FinalNYJ 41 IND 0

    Jets point differential
    +41
    Lowest second-half model win probability
    99.2%

    Source accountChad Pennington’s Jets shut out Peyton Manning’s Colts in the 2002 season’s AFC Wild Card game at the Meadowlands.

    Open the case Read the Jets account
  4. Case 04Jets loss

    Thanksgiving, 2012

    2012 regular season

    FinalNYJ 19 NE 49

    Jets point differential
    -30
    Peak second-half model win probability
    0.8%

    Source accountNew England scored 35 points in the second quarter. The Jets committed five turnovers, including Mark Sanchez’s fumble after colliding with Brandon Moore.

    Open the case Read the Jets account

Loading the game archive…

452 wins and losses have usable second-half probability estimates and qualify for these rankings. Flagged scores and ties are excluded. Win probability is a model estimate from nflverse play-by-play; review the method and integrity checks.

ajetsfan

Everything else.