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2026 · Week 8

2026 · Week 8 · Nov 1, 2026

Lost 33–38 vs Las Vegas.

NYJ 33LV 38

· Las Vegas Raiders · Home game · MetLife Stadium · Outdoors

The 2026 seasonFind another game

The game on record

Game summary.

Win chance · play by play

85.1% was the Jets’ best chance to win after halftime.

100%50%0%Q1Q2Q3Q4
Model-estimated Jets win probability before each recorded play · play sequence · 161 usable points
Open the interactive game tape

Drives · where each one went

10 Jets drives: 3 touchdowns, 4 field goals.

  1. Jets, Q1 15:00: from own 35 to opp 3, 7 plays, field goal.
  2. Jets, Q1 7:23: from own 35 to opp 17, 12 plays, field goal.
  3. Jets, Q2 14:47: from own 30 to the end zone, 8 plays, touchdown.
  4. Jets, Q2 10:44: from own 35 to the end zone, 8 plays, touchdown.
  5. Jets, Q2 3:49: from own 46 to opp 21, 9 plays, field goal.
  6. Jets, Q3 9:52: from own 42 to the end zone, 3 plays, touchdown.
  7. Jets, Q3 4:14: from own 35 to own 42, 4 plays, punt.
  8. Jets, Q4 11:28: from own 24 to own 25, 4 plays, punt.
  9. Jets, Q4 9:09: from own 19 to opp 13, 9 plays, field goal.
  10. Jets, Q4 0:27: from own 35 to opp 35, 3 plays, turnover.
Each bar is one drive, from its first snap to its last (into the end zone for a touchdown), across the field from the Jets’ goal line on the left. Drives with no snap, such as a kickoff returned for a touchdown, are not shown. From nflverse play-by-play.

From the play-by-play · Q4 15:00

Largest second-half probability decrease. -18.4 percentage points

Jets model win-probability change on this play: -18.4 percentage points.

Measured game evidence

What each offense produced.

Jets vs LVWeek 8 ·

EPA / play

Expected points added
JetsOffense
+0.25061 plays
LVOffense
+0.21258 plays

Positive-EPA play rate

Included plays with EPA above zero
JetsOffense
50.8%61 plays
LVOffense
50.0%58 plays

Passing EPA / dropback

Expected points added
JetsOffense
+0.33835 dropbacks
LVOffense
+0.60727 dropbacks

Designed-rush EPA / rush

Expected points added
JetsOffense
+0.13026 rush plays
LVOffense
-0.13331 rush plays
About this analysis

Final score and play-by-play: nflverse (opens in a new tab). Probability is a model estimate. The curve contains usable source points; gaps are not reconstructed. Archive rankings exclude flagged scores and ties.

The featured play uses Jets-oriented model probability change after halftime, including overtime. The change does not explain why the game was won or lost.

Venue, roof and kickoff weather come from the nflverse schedule record for this game; they describe recorded conditions, not an effect on the result.

Sources and analysis methods

ajetsfan

Everything else.