2026 · Week 7 · Oct 25, 2026
Lost 25–28 vs Miami.
· Miami Dolphins · Home game · MetLife Stadium · Outdoors
The game on record
Game summary.
The Jets lost 25–28 at home against the Miami Dolphins. This is a game from the 2026 regular season archive.
Win chance · play by play
41.3% was the Jets’ best chance to win after halftime.
Drives · where each one went
9 Jets drives: 3 touchdowns, 1 field goal.
- Jets, Q1 10:53: from own 35 to the end zone, 4 plays, touchdown.
- Jets, Q1 0:57: from own 32 to opp 21, 9 plays, turnover.
- Jets, Q2 11:10: from own 30 to own 43, 5 plays, punt.
- Jets, Q2 0:06: from own 35 to own 35, 1 plays, end of half.
- Jets, Q3 15:00: from own 35 to opp 22, 9 plays, missed field goal.
- Jets, Q3 8:16: from own 27 to the end zone, 6 plays, touchdown.
- Jets, Q3 0:07: from own 17 to opp 15, 12 plays, field goal.
- Jets, Q4 7:48: from own 27 to own 27, 4 plays, punt.
- Jets, Q4 4:44: from own 35 to the end zone, 8 plays, touchdown.
From the play-by-play · Q4 4:55
Largest second-half probability decrease. -17.6 percentage points
(4:55) 2-M.Willis pass short left to 7-C.Douglas for 63 yards, TOUCHDOWN. PENALTY on NYJ-21-B.Stephens, Roughing the Passer, 8 yards, enforced between downs.
Jets model win-probability change on this play: -17.6 percentage points.
Measured game evidence
What each offense produced.
Jets vs MIAWeek 7 ·
EPA / play
Expected points added- JetsOffense
- +0.25752 plays
- MIAOffense
- +0.28362 plays
Positive-EPA play rate
Included plays with EPA above zero- JetsOffense
- 51.9%52 plays
- MIAOffense
- 50.0%62 plays
Passing EPA / dropback
Expected points added- JetsOffense
- +0.34933 dropbacks
- MIAOffense
- +0.65428 dropbacks
Designed-rush EPA / rush
Expected points added- JetsOffense
- +0.09619 rush plays
- MIAOffense
- -0.02234 rush plays
About this analysis
Final score and play-by-play: nflverse (opens in a new tab). Probability is a model estimate. The curve contains usable source points; gaps are not reconstructed. Archive rankings exclude flagged scores and ties.
The featured play uses Jets-oriented model probability change after halftime, including overtime. The change does not explain why the game was won or lost.
Venue, roof and kickoff weather come from the nflverse schedule record for this game; they describe recorded conditions, not an effect on the result.
Sources and analysis methodsajetsfan