2026 · Week 5 · Oct 11, 2026
Won 17–12 vs Cleveland.
· Cleveland Browns · Home game · MetLife Stadium · Outdoors
The game on record
Game summary.
The Jets won 17–12 at home against the Cleveland Browns. This is a game from the 2026 regular season archive.
Win chance · play by play
20.5% was the Jets’ lowest chance to win after halftime.
From the play-by-play · Q4 4:01
Largest second-half probability increase. +34.3 percentage points
(4:01) (Punt formation) 13-C.Bojorquez FUMBLES (Aborted) at CLE 42, touched at CLE 28, RECOVERED by NYJ-49-T.Wallace at CLE 23.
Jets model win-probability change on this play: +34.3 percentage points.
Measured game evidence
What each offense produced.
Jets vs CLEWeek 5 ·
EPA / play
Expected points added- JetsOffense
- -0.17664 plays
- CLEOffense
- -0.29765 plays
Positive-EPA play rate
Included plays with EPA above zero- JetsOffense
- 39.1%64 plays
- CLEOffense
- 24.6%65 plays
Passing EPA / dropback
Expected points added- JetsOffense
- -0.36335 dropbacks
- CLEOffense
- -0.23744 dropbacks
Designed-rush EPA / rush
Expected points added- JetsOffense
- +0.04929 rush plays
- CLEOffense
- -0.42021 rush plays
About this analysis
Final score and play-by-play: nflverse (opens in a new tab). Probability is a model estimate. The curve contains usable source points; gaps are not reconstructed. Archive rankings exclude flagged scores and ties.
The featured play uses Jets-oriented model probability change after halftime, including overtime. The change does not explain why the game was won or lost.
Venue, roof and kickoff weather come from the nflverse schedule record for this game; they describe recorded conditions, not an effect on the result.
Sources and analysis methodsajetsfan