Compare the final with the probability path. Losses rank by their highest second-half estimate; wins rank by their lowest.
453 analyzed games · 1999–2026Through
The memory ledger Selected archive cases
Selected games. The record.
Final scores, sourced game accounts and model estimates. These selections sit outside the probability rankings.
Case 01Jets win
Monday Night Miracle
2000 regular season
Final / OTNYJ 40 — MIA 37
Jets point differential
+3
Lowest second-half model win probability
0.4%
Source accountTrailing 30–7 after three quarters, the Jets rallied. Jumbo Elliott caught the tying touchdown with 42 seconds left; John Hall’s field goal won it in overtime.
Source accountThe Jets returned to Gillette after a 45–3 regular-season loss and beat New England in the divisional playoffs, reaching their second straight AFC Championship Game.
Source accountNew England scored 35 points in the second quarter. The Jets committed five turnovers, including Mark Sanchez’s fumble after colliding with Brandon Moore.
452 wins and losses have usable second-half probability estimates and qualify for these rankings. Flagged scores and ties are excluded. Win probability is a model estimate from nflverse play-by-play; review the method and integrity checks.